Couple of days ago some bloggers spread the information than Hosni Mubarak’s son Gamal Mubarak and his family had flown to London. This has not been confirmed to date. As today published cables reveal, Gamal Mubarak was considered by military as a successor of his father should the regime had changed. The military would safeguard a “constitutional transition of power” and support Gamal Mubarak even though “the real center of power in Egypt is the military”, which remains key political and economical force.
Former minister Dr. Ali El Deen Hilal Dessouki dismissed the possible danger of protests against the current regime, calling opposition parties “weak” and democracy a “long term goal.” “There would be some violence around the upcoming 2010 parliamentary and 2011 presidential elections”, he said, “but…security forces would be able to keep it under control.”
It seems that politicians have underestimated their own people.
Dessouki claimed that “widespread politically-motivated unrest was not likely because it was not part of the ’Egyptian mentality’. Threats to daily survival, not politics, were the only thing to bring Egyptians to the streets en masse.”
Long way from Pharaoh rule to democracy
Dessouki stated that Egypt was moving towards democracy, but that a transition from a “pharaohnic” political system would take a long time.
In 2007 constitutional amendments package aimed at ensuring Gamal Mubarak’s succession of his father was approved. Embassy contact stated that Gamal and his cronies facilitated tremendous corruption. The contact considered a post-Mubarak military coup as “the best possible way out for Egypt … we are in a terrible spot, and that is the best of all the bad options available.”
Possible implicatons of the coup
Despite being the key political force the Egyptian military is in intellectual and social decline, whose officers have largely fallen out of society’s elite ranks. The military showed uneasiness with Gamal, but would support him should Hosni Mubarak resign. However, one senior professor opined that if Mubarak died in office, the military would seize power rather than allow Gamal to succeed his father. Analysts, though, agreed that the military would allow Gamal to take power through an election if President Mubarak blessed the process and effectively gave Gamal the reigns of power.